The Weather Man

The last week has been heart-wrenching to say the least. And I'm taking it out on the weather man. Every day we all start our day with a weather report. We plan our activities, our vacations, our ballgames, our picnics all around the weather. And the weather men know this. But do they really know how much the farmer depends on the accuracy of his report? I don't think so. In fact, being a weather forecaster is the one job where you can be wrong 75% of the time and not get fired!

We hope to bale hay three times per season... roughly Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day ... give or take a week or two. We decided to sell all of our first cutting because it is very "stemmy" and my sheep always pick around for the soft stuff, leaving the stems for me to haul away. The second cutting would be much softer and more ideally suited for the sheep.

Well, this also seemed to be the year for clover! It has taken over all of the pastures, the hay field, my gardens. The sheep love it, but it can be too rich, so a nice balance of clover and grass is best. Anyway, we began a couple weeks ago looking at the forecast for about 4 days of no forecasted rain. We wanted to cut a week ago Thurs, then bale on the weekend. But they were certain it was going to rain on Thursday. So we didn't cut... and it didn't rain a drop. The weekend was exceptionally cool ... a record low high temperature ... would have been wonderful to bale in, but no. We relied on the weather man and he was wrong.

As an aside, I am using the term "weather man" generically to cover all forecasters. I look at about 4 websites and it's no surprise that they are drastically different.
www.weather.com
www.wunderground.com
www.accuweather.com/
www.whiotv.com/weather/index.html (our local TV station's website)

So the week went on and it looked like we could cut Saturday & Sunday (18/19th). It was supposed to be sunny with either 20% or 30% chance of rain forecasted by everyone through Wednesday, with the next big chance of rain on Thursday. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday were not sunny or even partly sunny (which is important to dry hay), nor was there any breeze (there is always a breeze in Ohio!) So the hay didn't dry very fast. And by Monday, the weather man decided there was now a 70% chance of rain on Wednesday!!

Tuesday night we baled 25 bales to see how they would be and they were way too wet. You can tell when the bale weighs 75-100 pounds instead of 50 pounds. And just a couple days later, it's now soggy instead of crisp and dry. When you break it open, it's warm to the touch and it smells of fermentation. In another 5-7 days, it will be moldy inside and it will be junk.

So Wednesday came and we received 1.4" of rain. It rained all day. I was happy for the garden. I was happy for the pastures. I was devastated for the hay field. Yesterday (Thursday), the sun never came out, so it just sat there remaining soggy. I went out this morning and it is still very wet and I'm wondering if I should ted it or not (fluff it up with a circular rake-type thing). Checking all of the weather sites, there is supposed to be rain tomorrow. The big disagreement is when. One says 8am, one says 11am, one says late afternoon. The hay may not be worth keeping in the end, but it has to come off the field to make way for the 3rd cutting. Otherwise we'll get all that dead chaff in the next bales.

So what to do with the weather man? They should provide a rating on their website with the percentage accuracy of their forecast. That would give you an idea of who to believe. I could send them a bill for the $1000 in hay I will have to buy to replace what I lost. Maybe the government would include me in their "bale" out plan. If anyone has a reliable weather site, please let me know!

Well, gotta close here ... need to go find a weekend with no rain so we can go camping :)